Post-communist Ukraine is Post-reformatory Switzerland.

Меня попросили размещать англоязычные варианты прогнозно-аналитических статей прошлых лет. В данной статье, опубликованной летом 2005 года, представлены основные сверх долгосрочные тенденции развития Украины. Среди прочего в ней содержится прогноз кризи

Stus Vladimir

Post-communist Ukraine is Post-reformatory Switzerland.

On the basis of Development Model of technological civilization*

Economical, political and social self-identification of Ukraine is going very slowly and with abrupt deviations from one side in other.

It is a result of the fact that Ukraine was not in a great deal ready to rapid disintegration of USSR neither in economic nor in a social and cultural aspects. So, on a background of the sharpest economic crisis there was the complex of state and national inferiority, accompanied with the fixed idea of speed-up integration in the nearest direction. As for the western regions of Ukraine the nearest direction of integration is EU, for the east regions it is Russian federation. For the Moslem population of Crimea there is its own direction of desirable integration.

The advantages of integration in one or another direction are actively advertised by their supporters. However, as objective process of self-identification may be slow and with a creak, but however takes place gradually, for mass consciousness the lacks of integration in any direction become obvious gradually:

1. Speed-up integration in any direction will pass by rules? Which were not produced primary not in Ukraine and poorly taking into account its features and interests.

2. As a result the loss of part of state sovereignty will be accompanied by the loss of long duration strategic advantages of our country in different regions of its development;

3. Speed-up integration in any of directions is fraught by the dissidence of the country.

And Russian federation and EU are not only the partners of Ukraine and desirable for many countries directions of integration, but, foremost, its basic competitors.

In addition, in the case of deep integration with that or with other system Ukraine close will run into the strategic problems of these systems.

The basic strategic problems lasting a long time of Russian federation, in comparison with Ukraine:

1. Low level of stability’s development.

2. Substantial defect toward a mining and production of not renewable resources, raw material character of economy, its «Dutch illness»

3. More higher share of unslavonic population requires specific charges of large scale on maintenance of stability and development

4. More lower level of democratization of society

5. More higher level of financial, social and cultural stratification of society

6. Charges related to support of status of «Great Power» of one of world geopolitical centers.

7. The problems connected with the geographical position and very large area of a country.

Basic strategic and lasting a long time problems of EU in comparison with Ukraine:

1. The economy’s stagnation of many countries of EU, gradually transforming to its system crisis.

2. In many countries, which are the members of EU during a long period of time, the processes of democracy development, openness of society, social partnership and deepening of integration within the bounds of EU were changed by opposite processes.

3. The lack of own non-renewable resources and low competitiveness of considerable part of production of the renewable resources.

4. High level of bureaucratization of management by the structures of EU and going down level of efficiency of management.

5. Strengthening of contradictions between «Old» and «New» Europe.  

The direction of south (Islam) integration is not very popularized while, but it’s influencing in a Moslem environment and so is prevailing. And as far as growth of the Islam population part in the structure of population of separate regions and Ukraine meaningfulness of Islam direction of integration will increase on the whole. However the connection with religious factor in this aspect will limit distribution of this direction of integration. 

In spite of these obvious failings, actually the proper way of economic, political, social and cultural development of Ukraine is marked and grounded in theory very poorly through the prolonged process of self-identification. For this reason, from one side there could not be the valuable third force on presidential elections of 2004 year, and from other side a president selected on these elections is not be able to follow by means of speed-up integration in the direction wired for sound during hustings. A situation will repeat oneself with elections of 1994 year - then a candidate in presidents Leonid Kuchma was also examined as pro-Russian, and coming to power forced to follow by much more moderate course.  President Yuschenko also has to follow by more moderate course than it was proclaimed during election campaign and his first days, working as the president of Ukraine. 

Process of self-identification, as in mass consciousness of political, economic, social and cultural features, as a compliant dynamic system, it is impossible to define determinations only within the framework of geopolitical, economic or religious models. It’s impossible to do in the framework of imperious structures, or as fashionable now to speak are «elite», and then to inculcate to mass consciousness as myths and stereotypes to drive mass home.

Self-identification is a part of becoming nation and efforts of «elite» only will be not enough.

However, if to consider the development of Ukraine from positions of development of civilization, it is possible to define the base parameters of development of Ukraine, which can be specified by macroeconomic methods and the methods of political and cultural science.

In order to don’t bring the long and boring theoretical laying out over, we will take advantage of the already known and rather obvious comparison.

Why does the comparison with Switzerland obvious?

More often propagandists and agitators explained to the so called nationally “irresponsible” people, why four official languages – simultaneously are normal for Switzerland, but two languages will be too much for our country or why we must be quickly integrated, and Switzerland is able to being not in a great hurry.

What is in common between modern Ukraine and Switzerland at  the beginning of  XVII century?

1.     During the forming both countries had minimal territory for the possibility of independent development in the proper terms and time;

2.     Both countries appeared and developed on the crossing of three centers of the geopolitical influence. During the long history of Switzerland these centers had a different name. There are Germany, Italy and France now. There are the West European (Polish, Austrian), Russian (Moscow) and Islam (Turkish) are the centers of influence for Ukraine. Thus some neighboring centers of the geopolitical influence are in a position to conduct mass external or internal colonization and expansion, but others, are not in such position by virtue of the geographical location.

3.     The basic ethnic groups are corresponding to the external centers of influence at both countries.

Regarding to Switzerland there are German-speaking, French-speaking and Italy speaking Swisses (we will not taking into account the transmitters of Retoromanic language because of their small part in the common population).

As for Ukraine there are Ukrainian-speaking, Russian-speaking and Moslem (Crimean Tatar et al) Ukrainians.

Such definitions are not usual for modern Ukraine, so as far as the proper definitions were not usual for Switzerland of beginning of XVII century. 

4.     For both countries religiously-confession corresponds to ethnic and cultural distinction.

5.      Before formation of both countries their modern territories partly entered in the complement of the proper geopolitical centers of influencing. Thus this staying in composition of prepotent neighbours was often accompanied, at the best, by the attempts of assimilation, and in worst by wars and genocide.

6.     History of both countries is full examples of cruel civil wars on ideological-religious and ethnic reasons. The self-identification of Switzerland and making of special Swiss way also passed very slowly and difficultly.

7. Switzerland in the beginning of XVII century only went out from the period of Reformation, and modern Ukraine from a communist period. Likeness between these periods is well known.

8.      Ukraine, as well as Switzerland, during the all development is a major transit country. Comparative specific transit potential of Switzerland in the beginning of XVII century approximately confronted with modern Ukrainian. 

9.     The economic development of regions of Switzerland in the beginning of XVII century and later is much differentiated. This distinction was smoothed out gradually, however remains noticeable and now.

10.Switzerland and Ukraine have the large scale of renewable resources. And these resources in a great deal are similar.

11. Switzerland in the beginning of XVII century and Ukraine in the beginning of XXI century are rather poor countries according to European standarts. Active emigration of labor resources and soldiery hirelings goes from these countries.

12. Ukraine and Switzerland have deep traditions of democratic device of society from commonalties to higher state management.

13. The basic ethnic groups of Switzerland and Ukraine have a similar mentality:

-   High degree of tolerance and, at the same time, certain insularity («canny»);

-   The traditions of individual management and small private property

    in combination with communal traditions;

-   diligence, obstinacy and certain carefulness;

-   The proverb «It’s not concern of mine» is fully applicable for both Ukrainian and for Swiss.

Clearly, that likeness of mentalities between different ethnic groups  of Switzerland from one side and Ukraine from other side not identical. But for both countries is common circumstance that, in spite of long history of joint living the basic ethnic groups did not assimilate with each other and between them considerable distinctions are saved.

 However, the absolute coincidences do not exist. And between Switzerland at the beginning of XVII century and modern Ukraine are substantial distinctions:

- Switzerland is a mountainous country. It is difficult to conquer it. It is more difficult to retain conquered and generally to manage it. Ukraine, vice versa, is a country «roll the field». The amount of the names of its conquerors during long history of Ukraine can be counted in tens.

1 Switzerland in the beginning of XVII century was fully formed country with centuries-old history of state development and completed process of self-identification.

Switzerland at the beginning of XVII century was an agrarian country, long before the beginning of industrial revolution. However modern Ukraine it is an industrially-agrarian country, which saved, considerable scientifically-technological and cultural potential in spite of crisis of 90th. It seems to me that it is possible to compare these countries, to analyze their development only on the base of conception unconnected with the level of scientifically-technological and socio-economic development. The neutral conception in political, religious, ideological and cultural aspects like the work ‘Development model of technological civilization’*.

The distinction of the political system forms also is not determining – in Switzerland it is confederalism, and the unitary state in Ukraine. The distinction between Simferopol and Ivano-Frankovsk of 2001 year, for example, is not less than, for example, distinction between Geneva and Basel of 1604 year. A similar distinction showed up practically in all regions of development of these regions of both countries. However to apply the history of Switzerland’s development at the beginning of XVII century to the future history of Ukraine wouldn’t be right. At the same time, knowing the basic parameters of development of civilization subsystem under the title «Ukraine», and fundamental differences of external environment at the beginning of XVII and XXI centuries, using the Development model of technological civilization it’s quite really to give the prognosis of basic progress trends of Ukraine. Thus the likeness between modern Ukraine and Switzerland at the beginning of XVII century will allow expounding tendencies of the development of modern Ukraine more evident.

1.     External neutrality and saving of internal stability.

The fact that the Switzerland didn’t take a part in a thirty years war is a determinant of the development of post-reformatory Switzerland. It is comparatively the poor country expressly parted on a few parts with the very conditional centralized management, simply did not have resources and reasons for participation in the large European fight. At the same time for the neighbouring geopolitical centers also did not make sense to be at war with it according to the following reasons:

The whole country and its different regions individually have deep historical traditions of resistance to the invaders.

- Post-reformative Switzerland was a rather poor country; therefore it couldn’t be a victim of «raids» of neighbours with the purpose of plunder.

- Even after the conquering a country, to save the control above the whole its territory it will be very problematic and expense, taking into account its actual division on a few parts.

- according to religious and ideological positions at the beginning of a XVII century it was already late to conquer this country because of the period of Reformation and Renaissance for the countries of Western Europe ended already.

In such situation, much more credible, that saving the control will be succeeded only after territory with ethnically, religiously or ideologically close population and territory. The other territory without resistance would enter in the complement of other competitive centers, that would do war with Switzerland senseless.

A similar situation in contemporary, post-modern, post-communist Ukraine, the difference only that large unrest, the analogue of thirty years war did not begin yet. But when it will begin, it’ll flow on a world scale. It turns out that existence of these countries and their neutral status is advantageous to the neighbours of both post-reformative Switzerland and post-modern Ukraine. Thus, naturally, they want to spread their own economic, political, cultural and religious influencing. But it is prevailing only in a neighbouring region.

The influencing of other geopolitical centers will prevail in other regions. And as far as opening out of unrest and crisis processes in the European scale in the first half of XVII century and on a world scale in the first half of a XXI century as far as limitation of the rights and  freedoms of citizens in neighbouring centers, as far as introduction of economic blockades of geopolitical blocks of each other, with beginning of the ethnic and religious cleanings, with beginning, finally, military operations in one or another kind, advantage of neutral status and priority of saving of internal stability become realized in Switzerland and Ukraine in proper periods. In addition, in mass consciousness there is making and awareness of mechanisms of country functioning, as systems, its features and ways of development i.e. the process of national self-identification is completed.

Certainly, it was always easier to take Ukraine by virtue of its relief, than Switzerland.

However Ukraine has the unique permanent safe conducts from the side of leading nuclear countries now. Now many are inclined to perceive these guarantees skeptically. But, if not to trust to the guarantees of France, Britain and the USA, Euro Atlantic integration and entry into NATO in general does not make sense. The similar situation is with Russian federation. In addition, these guarantees comfortable occasion to one geopolitical block to recover status quo in the case of intervention from other. These guarantees are the factors of internal stability.

Saving of stability will allow attracting desirable immigrants in ethnical and religious and cultural aspect, like an influx in Swiss protestant Canton of Protestants from other European countries, where they were subjected to repressions. It will allow not only solving the demographic problems by optimum way but also notedly will enliven the cultural and technological development of Ukraine. It is enough to remember that rapid development of Swiss exact mechanical engineering and watch industry is following on migration of French Huguenots in protestant Canton. Ukraine also has a very positive experience of immigration of the German Protestants.

In addition, saving of stability, at very good correlation of not renewable and renewable resources and comparative small population, will allow to Ukraine to provide long-term surplus of financial resources.

2. What alternative is remains if the external speed-up integration extremely improbable? – The internal integration between different regions of country. It is the «unploughed field» in general. The current position of country is characterized by the fact that different regions of country, ethnic and religious groups in the economic and cultural relation are anymore integrated with the proper geopolitical centers, than between itself. It is natural not only on historical reasons.

In obedience to typology of countries and regions of Development model of technological civilization, Ukraine consists of three regions from five possible.

Therefore complex integration of different regions of Ukraine is a process protracted, which will occupy not an age. Therefore, as at any other protracted objective process, he will have the periods of acceleration, braking and temporal recoil backwards.

The other feature is that in the process of internal integration of regions none of them will become dominant and prevailing above other, as it did not happen in Switzerland. It is integration without unification but with the maximally possible saving of variety and development of internal specialization. In final analysis, such slow internal integration with priority of saving of internal stability and variety, without standardization and assimilation will be more effective, not only than integration with one of the neighbouring geopolitical systems but also integration of countries into modern EU.

The third feature of internal integration is the different speed of development in various regions and spheres. In the economic sphere it will move up quicker, than in others. Ukrainian inner system of labor division with the high level of specialization will be formed thus. It will take place parallel to integration of all Ukrainian economy in the world system of labor division.

3. By analogy with modern Switzerland, a new Ukrainian nation is formed as political, poly-cultural and poly-confessional. Reincarnation of the Ukrainian national idea of the second half of XIX century – beginning of XX century and construction will not take place on its basis of a new state ideology. It’s not worth to expect the forming of single local Orthodox Church in the nearest decades. It won’t be present steadily dominant confession, language and culture on all territory of Ukraine.

4. The prospect of development of direct democracy for modern Ukraine is the same distant, as well as for Switzerland in the beginning of XVII century. In Switzerland introduction of People’s right initiative was in 1891, and introduction of universal franchise for women only in 1971. Even speaking about modern Switzerland it would be proper to speak only about the elements of direct democracy in the control system by a country on a next reason. Modern technologies of communication, treatment and defense of information, and also the educational level of citizens and availability of computer technique technically allows to attain much more high level of direct participation of citizens in the government. So, that is not all modern economic feasibilities for realization of possibilities of direct democracy are used. Nevertheless, Switzerland now is one of the most democratic countries. Ukraine will go slowly and gradually on this way. Moreover, development of direct democracy is inevitable for saving of territorial integrity of Ukraine in its modern scopes. One only parliamentary republic with the developed regional self-government for this purpose will be unenough.  While it is difficult to believe in it, but in course of time Ukraine will enter in the number of the most democratic countries. At the same time a lot of modern countries will not be able to retain existing high enough level of democracy. On the whole, to the questions of determination of the optimum control systems by countries and regions and level of democracy development depending on the phase of development and type of country on classification of Development Model of technological civilization it is planned to devote separate work.

5. The experiment concerning the voluntarily and forced Ukrainization will fail under influencing of economic, political and cultural terms. Thus instead of Russian language will be not Ukrainian, but English language by virtue of more high economic attractiveness.

However, in more distant prospect and English language will not become dominant.

As for official languages, probably, there will be more than two. Considerable part of questions related to its functioning will solved with the use of elements of direct democracy and certain legalization of «surzhyk» and, possibly, other dialects of Ukrainian and Russian languages will be at local level.

Ukraine, as well as Switzerland of post-reformative period, will develop as multilingual country.

6. The outflow of the Ukrainian citizens for work abroad will go down considerably, and most of our citizens even will get back from EU back. In the nearest decade will be considerable liberalization of getting visa procedure with Western Europe or his abolition.

Inculcation of the visa regulations for the number of Central Asiatic and Caucasian countries is possible at the same time. 

At the same time Ukraine for illegal immigrants gradually will be becoming a no transit country, but the country of settling down. In course of time attractiveness of Ukraine, in that behalf will be higher, than most European countries, it is typical for modern Switzerland. The amount of citizen without citizenship and temporal workers in the common population of country will increase gradually. It is necessary to expect introduction of hard, actually ethnically and the religiously oriented, migratory regulations and control of its implementation. From one side Ukraine will attract immigrants from historically Christian countries, with other - sharply to limit the influx of immigrants from not historically Christian countries. It is difficult to believe it now, but, as well as in XVII century the stream of immigrants from Western Europe will go out to Ukraine, including from Germany.

7. From one side Ukraine it is a very rich country, in the most different resources both in absolute expression and in relative, for one habitant and from other side does not have prospects to become the independent center of the geopolitical influencing (by an empire).

Therefore, if the professional army will be created fully, it will last comparatively not for a long time. The reasons of future wars will be ideological and religious aspects. And the Kalashnikov’s gun and hand grenade launcher in their subsequent embodiments will be a basic weapon, instead of a high-fidelity hi-tech weapon and  weapon of mass defeat, which is resulting in the infection of territories strong and of long duration. The last conflicts are shown, that to subordinate a country and capture its resources, where in every house there is Kalashnikov’s gun it is impossible, in spite of highly technological weapon and large professional army. In these terms the presence of professional army even large and hi-tech, for providing of safety of country will be insufficient. A clearly, that future semi-professional army will be anymore looks like swiss, than on soviet. However, to understanding of necessity of just the same type of army, Ukraine will come not yet soon.

8. As it was stated higher, different regions of Ukraine belong to three different civilization types from five possible, in obedience to Model of the TTS Development. At the same time, none of Ukrainian regions unable potentially to exist, as the independent is strange are not those scales. And, finally, Ukraine is not and can not in a prospect become the center of the geopolitical influencing with imperial orders and management method.

In these terms the stable, centralized management by such system in the long-term period of time in principle is impossible. 

So the high level of development of local self-government to Ukraine is assured. An analogy with Switzerland is obvious. The actual level of development of local self-government will be uneven on regions, in spite of single normative base.

9. Ukraine’s economic development will differ from development of economies of neighbouring geopolitical centers.

Unlike the economy of Western Europe the deindustrialization does not threaten Ukrainian economy and in 50 years. Certainly, correlation of low-tech and hi-tech industries will change.  But also in 50 years it’ll be advantageously for Ukraine to obtain the coking coal, ore and to have major metallurgical concerns on its territory. Group of industries which on the border of ages were named a «new economy» for strategic development of economy of Ukraine will not be priority so, as far as it was in EU in the beginning of XXI century. In general the western model of investment-technological development of economy of the end of XX and beginning of XXI centuries to Ukraine is small applicable. The machine-building complex of Ukraine will be specialized on heavy and almost all sub industries of transporting mechanical engineering, and also farm technique. On the whole the economy of country in a great deal will revive and there is priority to develop the industries traditionally developed in soviet times. The exception will make stormy development of the industries, related to production, treatment and exploitation of renewable resources, beginning from farming and concluding by tourism and local renewable power resources. In addition, it is possible the speed-up development of industries which are providing the functioning of transit potential of Ukraine.

Unlike the economy of Russian federation, the “Dutch illness” does not threaten Ukrainian economy».

The Ukrainian economy will develop more balanced and stable, both in temporal and in the regional aspects.

10. The planned standardization of the Ukrainian standards and other normative acts with European, will not take place. Considerable part of normative base in the most different industries can not be brought to conformity with the requirements of EU without considerable harm for the economy of Ukraine. It is possible to say aboutprobable unification of standards of Ukraine with other geopolitical centers. Certainly, greater part of standards will be compatible, but also in 100 years complete standardization will not be attained.

11. There are a lot of consumers around the world and they know the most different Swiss goods and services and its good quality, consumer properties and market positioning. Everybody knows a Swiss clock, knives, cheeses, machine-building products, Swiss banks and mountain resorts. The majority of production of these goods and services has the general lines:

- Specialization on their production during many centuries;

- Production of these commodities and providing of services is carried out in        comparatively a competitive background with low level of monopolism;

- Many of these commodities/services from the category of daily necessity and functional demand gradual, very slowly passed to the category of status demand;

- The competitiveness of producible commodities/services practically at all markets is indissolubly related to unique combination of local renewable and not renewable resources, traditions of production and qualification of personnel.

At the same time there are the whole industries, wherever Swiss commodities were never present, in spite of the presence of technological possibilities.

The economy of Ukraine will develop in a similar manner. From one side it will not be able to develop complex, mainly working to the internal market.

From the other side it can not be fully integrated with none of economies of the nearest geopolitical centers.

Therefore there will be making and realization on the whole world of the specialized, typical only for Ukraine goods and services in the long-term prospect of one of main features of economic development of Ukraine. Such goods and services, on which Ukraine will be specialized during centuries and which in a whole world will be associated with this country. As well as in Switzerland, these goods and services will be from different industries of economy that will provide the high level of stability of economic development, comparatively that is not depending on external shocks.

The process of this making, very specific specialization, within the framework of the international system of division of labor will take place very long, during ages. Therefore, it is almost impossible to define now what Ukraine will be specialized on. It is possible only to assume that it will not be low technological products.

12. During long history of independent Switzerland different geopolitical centers had a priority influence on it. So in Ukraine the «centers of attraction» will be changing. Now the «Pro-European» vector of development practically attained the maximum. But time will pass, and he will be replaced by other, again on some time. Already it is now possible to forecast strengthening of East in general, and influence Moslem vector in particular on Ukraine.

But as far as development of Ukraine on very specific and specialized Swiss way of development, if in the nearest decades it’ll succeed the sitting on the fence, force of influence  of the external influencing will diminish at all levels. The internal stability will be increased.

The progress of Ukraine trends listed above is super long-term I.e. will operate during a few ages.

Conclusion:

In spite of obvious distinctions, taking into account basic factors and phases of civilization development of post-reformative Switzerland in the beginning of XVII century most looks like modern post-modern, post-communist Ukraine in the beginning of a century.

Long-term prognosis:

Ukraine can not be simply a buffer between the centers of geopolitical influence -

for this purpose it has too much resources, the value of which will be increasing.

Ukraine has no chances to become the basis of new center of the geopolitical influencing to small territory. And there is no time for it.

In obedience to Development Model of technological civilization in the nearest 10-15 years will come rather protracted phase of crisis and instability, which will affect most modern countries and will considerably change both the political map of the world and laying out of forces on it.

There are two possible variants of Ukraine’s development in these terms:

1  Development on the Swiss type with maximally possible ranging of coming political, economic and soldiery crises and conflicts.

2  Stopping, in the nearest 2-3 decades, existences of Ukraine as independent country in scopes existing in the beginning of XXI century under influencing critically of negative external influences.

3  To appreciate the probability of each of variants is rather difficult. Too large value has personality, and other subjective factors. It is possible only to specify, that than the period of external crisis and instability will come later, the anymore than chances, that Ukraine successfully will overcome it and in future will develop on the Swiss way of development.

* Vladimir V. Stus. Development Model of technological civilization. Zaporozhje: Dikoje pole, 2002. - ISBN 966-7037-67-3. А73 Р100163

17.08.2005