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27.10.2011 14:27

The Globalization is nearing its completion (2008)

Консультант по стратегии, аналитик, прогнозист

The Globalization became usual concept a long time ago. The millions of people make their ways in the world using it, some of them extend the activity of their business at the global markets, and others are in the antiglobalists’ public organizations. The

(английский перевод статьи, напечатанной в газете "День" 28 ноября 2008 года )

The Globalization became usual concept a long time ago. The millions of people make their ways in the world using it, some of them extend the activity of their business at the global markets, and others are in the antiglobalists’ public organizations.

The factor of globalization is in all textbooks: beginning from the strategic management to the study of art.

It is very often as soon as a new concept becomes usual and popular, it begins to lose the actuality.

There are two main processes in globalization on the civilization’s level.

The first process is the physical expansion of technological space of civilization with distribution of technologies of Modern period on all territories that can be mastered at modern technological level. It is the process of classic colonization. It does not differ from classic ancient Greek period.

The first main process entails the second one. The technological expansion of colonization in a number of regions with favourable terms led to the beginning of local second Moderns, which are the diminished version on duration and scale of primary European-north-American Modern, completed mainly to 1970.

All the other processes are the displays of these two main processes of development of civilization in economic, geopolitical, technological, cultural, demographic and other spheres. Therefore, it is possible to make the analysis of globalization and prognosis of its development according to civilization aspect only and then already to check up the main conclusions and specify on sectors.

The temporal scopes of globalization are set by the external terms where the both main processes of globalization are developing. After every period of revolutionary, explosive development the civilization gets the possibility, applying its technological achievements to extend the volume. Thus, it was after the explosive epoch of crusades. Then in the northern side of Alps, people began to use widely the iron axe. The usage of it opened in fact Europe for mastering at new technological level. This way it was after the identical revolutionary epoch of Reformation- the Renaissance - of the Great geographical discoveries, providing to Europe the possibility of mass colonization of enormous territories. The same things take place now after the great revolutionary discoveries and transformations of epoch of Modern. Now the external conditions are different cardinally. During many centuries the Christian world, and then Europe had a frontier, constantly moved aside settling on new territory. The possibility to broaden and to compensate the periodic decelerations of technological development by the quantitative expansion lies in the basis of all western civilization and it is its main difference from all eastern civilizations. The development of democracy, humanism and priority of human rights would be impossible without cheap base resources, unequivalent exchange with countries deprived the possibility to conduct the balanced colonization, the deficit of work force and possibility for all persons interested to go in the new world and to build a fair society there. Moreover, an industrial revolution would be impossible too. There is the other situation now. The possibilities for the quantitative expansion at the existent technological level are sharply restricted. Soviet cosmonaut Yuriy Gagarin did not become the second Christopher Columbus that opened to the developed countries the accessible to colonization new world. Even the intensified deficit of resources will not make more effective the mass colonization of the nearest space. It’s possible that even the tsetse fly will become an insuperable hindrance to mastering of natural habitat of its dwelling at modern technological level. The prospects of large-scale colonization of the ocean and the building of submarine cities also gradually become utopia. The scopes of possible expansion of the existent technological level is more nearer and becomes obviously, that for this time to compensate the slowing down of the high-quality development by the quantitative expansion is impossible. The prospects of completion of other main process of globalization become more obvious also. The numerous repeated Moderns passing all over the world from South Korea to Chile, in fact, are the distribution of discontinuous wave of European-north-American Modern – the great time of changes and explosive development. However, as this wave is weakening, all repeated Moderns would have less amplitude and duration, than Primary Modern. It is evidently, if to compare South Korea with China and Vietnam.  In South Korea the local repeated Modern have completed already. In China, the modernization is in full swing and in Vietnam, it is only at the beginning.

North-American Time of Changes in Europe was lasting during the whole century, approximately from 1870 to 1970. Obviously, the completing South-Korean modernization will last no more than 45 years. The accelerated development of China is beginning already to face with limitations of resources and nature. It will be lasting no more than 35 years. The modernization’s period of other developing countries will be much shorter. From one side the diminution of repeated Moderns amplitude resulted in that they caused and will cause in a future rather less shocks, than primaryModern - there will not be world wars, big tragedies, internal crises and oppositions will pass in more soft form. From other side, the diminishing of amplitude of repeated Moderns will shorten the amount of own scientific-technological and cultural breakthroughs of principle aspect. For example, it is obviously, that the achievements and discoveries of South-Korean science during the period of modernization are rather less than the discoveries of average West European country of Modern period. In spite of Chinese millennial scientific traditions, it is naive to hope for solving the global and more intensified scientific and technological problems on theirs account. On the example of South Korea, it is clear as far as completion of local repeated Moderns, new post-modern countries follow on the way of technological colonization, i.e. will not only run into those limitations that the old developed countries but also intensify a competition between them for mastering of declining possibilities of extensive development. During the nearest 10-15 years, the phase of explosive development of China will be completed and the reserves for the possible colonization will be practically exhausted. Therefore, natural limiting factors of both globalization processes are constituents of its civilization basis. The main function of globalisation is the rapid distribution of technologies of Modern on maximally possible space. It is near to its completion. How quickly will it be completed? What will replace it? From one side, the globalization as a powerful process of civilization has enormous inertia.

From the other side, the first signs of its exhausting appeared as early as 1970s. Therefore, now it is possible to say that the reverse dominant process of regionalisation, will replace the globalization.

In the modern world of global markets, where the economy of a scale became the key factor of competitive activity at all levels, regionalisation is perceived frequently as something that is backward and not effective. From the point of view of the civilisation’s development, the regionalisation is the process of adaptation to the terms of deceleration of rates of scientific-technological development and impossibility to conduct the balanced colonization and labour and resources shortage.  

Mainly, that it will allow increasing the part and efficiency of production and usage of renewable resources. The renewable resources are different everywhere, as different environmental conditions. For example, it is better to grow one culture (plants) on the south side of hill, and on the north side the other. In the conditions of low price of resources and high cost of labour it does not matter anyway the both sides of hill are used identically. The economy on the scale of production has a priority. In the conditions of deficit of resources and surplus of labour force, willy-nilly everybody begins to think over the usage even of small reserves of economical growth. Those limitations operate at the consumption of resources of any degree of processing. Advantages of economy on a scale and cost of labour at the production of global products are levelled by the price rises on usual resources and increase of transport charges. There are more commodities, made from the renewable local raw material with the rapid term of renewal and oriented to the specific of local market become more competitive in comparing to the global products, producible by the international corporations. These restraints are reflects on all the following spheres: economic, geopolitical, demographic, social and even religious.

There are many examples of it. The most striking example is the decrease of efficiency of the

Global International Organizations such as UNO, WTO, NATO and many others. At the best, this organisations are in a state of stagnation, in worst, in a state of crisis, showing the inability to work out major problems at global level and even inability for own reformation. The higher level of globalization of international organization is the sharper crisis. The prognosis that was advertised recently by futurologists concerning the supranational organisations will gradually undertake the considerable part of functions of the traditional state, does not prove to be correct.

Good example in an economic sphere is the numerous difficulties, which large international corporations, operating in the most different sectors of economy, ran into. Yet at the junction of centuries, the merger of the following corporations DIMLER and CHRYSLER was brought in textbooks on a strategic management as a standard of effective consolidation of corporations in the conditions of globalization of markets. In technical aspect, it was an example of crash of conception of world car as a decline of the competitiveness of global commodities.

In social aspect, it is obvious the toughening of immigration legislation last years. Liberal principles of the human rights on freedom of moving and choice of place of inhabitation retreat under the pressure of social and cultural problems of resources.

It is not obvious yet, but the tendency of linguistic regionalisation is expressly noticeable already. A single language of international communication will not be the same as there is not a single world car. Different languages will execute its function in the different regions of planet. Globalization turned out unable to cope with the increasing billow of ecological problems. Sharp growth of resources’ consumption in the countries, being in the stage of the second modernization fully levels all ecological efforts of already developed countries. In the conditions of deceleration of rates of technological development and absence of possibility to conduct the balanced colonization it turned out that, it is not possible to settle the conflict between the necessity of activation of the economy growing and reduction of consumption of resources, within the framework of globalization, despite all efforts. Regionalisation with its orientation on the increase of efficiency of the local renewable resources usage will allow considerably reducing the anthropogenic pressure. Then will be taking place the adaptation of the existing technological level.

Additionally to assist it at first will be the deceleration of growth rates of population, and then its substantial reduction, which will take place quicker, than it is accepted to consider now. Thus, the beginning regionalisation will solve most problems of globalization.

However, the bright future will not come.

Speaking about the advantages of regionalisation it is necessary to underline two important circumstances. At first, the transition from globalization and period of Modern to regionalisation with its adaptive, slow development will be accompanied by a crisis. This crisis will excel on a scale and duration a crisis connected with the collapse of USSR. Secondly, regionalisation will work out problems of civilizations in a great deal due to people. It will be the considerable decline of level of democracy in most countries, including the countries with centuries-old democratic traditions. In a number of cases, it will be the formalization of class society. Change of the generally accepted views to the human rights toward its reduction. The majority people could not pay for health protection and education in a future. It’s expected the diminishing of the level of mobility of population, emancipation and tolerance and, also equalities in gender, racial and religious aspects. The regionalisation will have many negative aspects.

But it’s not surprisingly, in fact the question is about adaptation of technological civilization to the certain worsening of external terms of existence.

At the same time, this worsening is not so critical, and civilization has enough unused reserves yet. So you should not believe to different scenarios of apocalypses.

Regionalisation is a mechanism of adaptation and it is one of such reserves.

День

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